U.S. secret satellites make 16 runs a day over Iranian nuclear sites, but such comprehensive intel may not last the decade, as space recon dwindles
Image: Artist's concept of U.S. Advanced KH-11 reconnaissance satellite shows resem- blance to Hubble Space Telescope and the ability to image off-track. Actual recons have solar arrays parallel to tele- scope barrel. Several older Advanced KH-11s and Lacrosse space-based radars are nearing the end of their service life.
Concerns are growing that 50% or more of the KH-11 optical and Lacrosse imaging radar satellites that make up the core of secret U.S. space reconnaissance operations will die before smaller, more modern replacements can be launched. A new program, however, may be forming to stem this trend.
Fears over the loss of future secret imaging capability are growing as the need for detailed pictures of Iranian and Chinese weapons developments is increasing.
U.S. intelligence officers have been concerned for years that China, especially, is trying thwart satellite intelligence by using aggressive camouflage techniques, Central Intelligence Agency managers say.
As a stopgap measure to limit any recon shortfall, the White House and National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) are assessing development of a limited "imaging gap-filler" type spacecraft program to bridge the span between existing satellites and smaller, newer ones promised under the troubled Future Imagery Architecture (FIA) program.
The problem is exacerbated by delays that will push launch of the first FIA optical spacecraft to at least 2009, if not later, while Lockheed Martin takes over from Boeing on the contract (AW&ST Sept. 5, 2005, p. 23).
With a record eight or nine large imaging spacecraft now operational, the concern is not over current capability, says Ted Molczan, a respected Toronto-based military space analyst. Rather, the problem is the next several years, when aging spacecraft now living on borrowed time begin to die as Iranian and Chinese reconnaissance targets grow.
Overhead imaging is also a mounting concern to Israel, which has just launched its own new imaging reconnaissance satellite. That Eros B spacecraft promptly imaged in great detail an important Syrian dam on the Euphrates River—a high-tech message to Israel's primary adversary in the region.
Four of the eight major U.S. NRO optical and radar imaging spacecraft currently aloft are 1015 years old. Already well beyond their design lives, these spacecraft could expire at any time. Each of the nearly 25,000-lb. spacecraft cost approximately $1 billion to build and $500 million to launch.
Two others are 5-6 years old—essentially middle age. The remaining single new Advanced KH-11 and Lacrosse imaging radars aloft are the last of their breed. Design lifetimes for these spacecraft are in the 7-8-year range. But the system needs more than two long-life satellites toward 2010.
New engineering measures are underway at NRO and the contractors to further extend the life of these satellites to the greatest extent possible. There could also be a ninth large secret imaging spacecraft also entering middle age—a stealthy variant of the KH-11 launched from Vandenberg AFB, Calif., on a Titan in May 1999.
The much different FIA imaging radar spacecraft remain under Boeing, and may be closer to launch. They would replace the Lacrosse space- based imaging radars operational since 1988 with 1-meter (3.3-ft.) or better resolution.
The amount of coverage the current four KH-11 imaging spacecraft and four Lacrosse radars provide over Iran illustrates the intensity of the monitoring underway on this crisis target.
The satellites cannot see underground, where much Iranian nuclear work is done; but they can detect both physical and thermally related changes occurring just hours apart aboveground, where everything going underground must appear at least briefly.
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